In the aftermath of Pakistan’s general elections on February 8, 2024, the political landscape of the country has taken a tumultuous turn, marked by familiar controversies, opportunistic coalition formations, and allegations of election manipulation.
Pakistan experienced many dramatic events from Imran Khan’s imprisonment and the disruption of Imran’s political party the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) to legal actions against PTI leaders. Then there was the return of exiled former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, the surprising election results (PTI-backed independents = 101, PML-Nawaz = 75 and PPP (Bhutto) = 54, MQM = 17), and the subsequent formation of a coalition government (PML-N joined hands with PPP) led by newly elected Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. As Pakistan grapples with these grave complexities, it faces economic challenges, security concerns, and a fragile political equilibrium.
The invisible hand
Pakistan is governed by an invisible hand known as the “establishment”, a euphemism for the top Pakistani military leadership. The country has been ruled by its army for nearly 35 years since it gained independence. The country saw many Prime Ministers being put behind bars. Any Prime Minister, who rubs the establishment the wrong way, is eventually toppled and ultimately loses power.
Cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan who paradoxically had earlier come to power with the support of the establishment in 2018, tried to confront the military after becoming the PM. He paid the price and has been in jail since May 2023. He faces multiple cases and serving convictions. His incarceration is a stark pointer to the condition of the rule of law and the state of democracy in Pakistan. The imprisonment of a former Prime Minister raises disturbing questions about the fairness of legal proceedings and allegations about the deep state that exists in Pakistan.
Unfair election
Undeniably, there were systematic efforts by the establishment to dismantle Imran Khan’s political party, the PTI. The party faced restrictions, such as being barred from using its cricket bat symbol on the ballot paper and being forced to field independent candidates. Despite these challenges, the PTI emerged as the party with the largest number of seats in the National Assembly, surprising many and sparking debates about the fairness of the electoral process. Many PTI leaders found themselves in jail or on the run, raising concerns about political vendettas and the erosion of political freedoms.
The PTI alleges massive electoral irregularities. It has given calls for street protests, adding another layer of instability to the post-election scenario. The specter of massive public rallies, protests, and roadblocks looms large, reminiscent of clashes in May 2023.
Meanwhile, Nawaz Sharif’s return from exile and his role in leading the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) showed that the Sharifs still enjoy considerable political support in the country despite being convicted in a court of law on charges of corruption and money laundering. It also shows the importance that the Pakistani electorate gives to probity in office.
Unity government led by Jr Sharif
Despite efforts to weaken the PTI, independent candidates associated with the party secured 101 of the 336 seats in the National Assembly (Pakistani Parliament’s Lower House), making them the largest bloc. The PML-N (75), PPP (54), and MQM (17) also secured significant seats, but no bloc had an absolute majority. Nawaz Sharif’s proposal for a unity government, excluding the PTI showed how “power at all costs” was still the overarching principle of the major political parties in Pakistan.
The coming together of earlier sworn enemies to keep their common enemy at bay raises concerns about the potential for political maneuvering and instability. Significantly, the PPP has decided against becoming a part of the government. Instead, they have announced support to the ruling party on no confidence and spending bills through their votes. The choice of Shehbaz Sharif (younger brother of Nawaz) to lead the coalition government means there will be a “remote control” style of governance as everybody knows that Nawaz Sharif will call the shots. With Maryam Nawaz (daughter of Nawaz Sharif) becoming the Chief Minister of Punjab (Pakistan’s largest and economically strongest province), Shehbaz is bound to be more of a prop than his own man.
Economic challenges
The military’s influence in supporting the coalition government might act as a calming political influence. However, the nation faces grave economic challenges. The current inflation rate is a staggering 30%, and the economy is being sustained by a $3 billion lifeline from the IMF that was granted last year. Although there has been some improvement, the foreign exchange reserves remain low at $8.2 billion. The new government has no choice but to restart talks with the IMF for a bailout package, making the road ahead to economic prosperity long and arduous (as Pakistan is confronted with repayments of $70 billion over the next three years).
Growing security challenges in Pakistan’s border region with Afghanistan remain in place. The need and potential for a bilateral engagement with India is a pointer to the historical willingness of the Sharif family to engage with India, combined with the possibility for diplomatic dialogue. How would the establishment respond to this policy shows the internal struggles Pakistan faces.
Pakistan’s tragedy
The major problem plaguing Pakistani politics is that the major political parties are ready to adjust their loyalties to the military in order to secure victory in elections. In a properly functioning democracy, parties are accountable to the voters and are motivated to address their issues. This is the key to gaining power.
However, when the military holds the reins to political power, like in Pakistan, democratic principles become less significant, and the parties’ link with the voters weakens. Consequently, Pakistani parties often act in ways that go against their own voters ‘demands and expectations.
Another problem is that all major political parties neglect building their parties organizationally and fail to empower their cadre. The 9 March editorial of the Dawn correctly summarized the main reason behind the current situation in Pakistan, “It is the misfortune of Pakistan’s more than 240m citizens that their political leadership simply refuses to learn. The country again stands at a crossroads. Those whose fortunes’ rise and fall are tied to the health of Pakistan’s democracy to work together and find a path forward that guarantees their preservation. Instead, what we see is the heads of ‘democratic’ parties quibbling over who ought to be more favored by those who have for long sought to go beyond their mandate. Therein lies the tragedy of Pakistan’s dream of ‘civilian supremacy’ – its biggest champions are usually the first to betray it.”