Perhaps without knowing the historical significance of the rise of oil price in shaping the politics of India the two sons of Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad Yadav – the younger one and the leader of opposition in Bihar Assembly Tejashwi Prasad Yadav and his elder brother Tej Pratap Yadav – pedalled down on the streets of Patna on June 25, the day Emergency was imposed in 1975, to register their protest against the non-stop upward swing in the prices of petrol and diesel in the country. While talking to the media, Tejashwi questioned as to why the prices are going up for 19 consecutive days when the oil price in the international market is repeatedly declining. He also said that in the post-lockdown situation people are hit even harder by this unchecked increase in price of fuel, especially of diesel, which had for the first time surpassed petrol in Delhi.
It was natural for the Congress not to remember the completion of 45 years of the imposition of Emergency. Yet a day earlier, on June 24, former Madhya Pradesh chief minister Digvijay Singh organised a similar bicycle ride in Bhopal.
The current scenario certainly demands an objective study of the role oil price rise had played in the months leading to the Emergency. Ironically, there are dissimilarities in the two situations, which are hardly being discussed.
The present generation is unaware of the factors which led to the decline of popularity of the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi who had emerged as a great leader after the victory over Pakistan and subsequent creation of Bangladesh after 14 days of war on December 16, 1971.
She was riding high and her party Congress(R) won Assembly elections in 1972. That was a big comeback after the then undivided Congress was voted out of power in nine states in 1967.
Things were somewhat smooth for her till early 1973 notwithstanding bad monsoon and changing economic situation internationally. In 1971 the world witnessed Nixon shock that led to the dollar becoming free floating currency in 1973.
However it was at the fag end of 1973 that Indira started facing a stiff challenge which she failed to handle throughout the subsequent months till the imposition of Emergency. The only big achievement of India throughout this period was the nuclear test it conducted on May 18, 1974. Curiously that significant development took place amidst the prolonged railway strike in the country by 1.7 million railwaymen between May 8 and 27. Incidentally, today too a large number of trains are off the track but for entirely different reasons.
It was the start of 17 days Yom Kippur War on October 6, 1973 between Arab and Israel which transformed the whole global scenario. Though it was Egyptian and Syrian armies which were fighting the Israelis the idea of using oil as a weapon was mooted by Saudi Arabia, then ruled by Shah Faisal. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided to increase the oil price four times, that is from three dollars to 12 dollars a barrel. The Arabs threatened to stop the sale of oil to the countries which were backing Israel. Though India, as its established policy then, stood solidly behind the Arabs, it suffered greatly due to the sudden rise in the oil price.
Strangely, the international price of oil is at present hovering around not much higher than 12 dollar a barrel, yet in the Indian market it is shooting up. If in 1970s the price increased four-fold in a couple of months, in the last six years the price of oil in international market has dropped by ten times from around 135-140 dollars a barrel in 2013-14.
The steep rise in oil prices after the Arab-Israel War threw everything haywire not only in India but in other countries as well. India struggled to keep down the inflation. This was followed by agitations and strikes across the country.
In Gujarat, the home state of the present Prime Minister Narendra Modi, protest against the hike in mess fees started in an engineering college in December 1973. The stir quickly turned into a state-wide movement against the government, both the state as well as the Centre. Chimanbhai Patel was then the chief minister of Gujarat. However, President’s rule was imposed in February 1974. Later this protest got the name of Nav Nirman movement.
In Bihar students took to streets on March 18, 1974 for almost the same reason. Lalu Prasad, present chief minister Nitish Kumar, his deputy Sushil Kumar Modi and Union law minister Ravi Shankar Prasad are all the children of the same big change. The students then invited Lok Nayak Jayaprakash Narayan to guide them. A big rally was organised in Patna on June 5, 1974.
Economic and political uncertainty continued throughout 1974 and early months of 1975. In Bihar chief minister Abdul Ghafoor was replaced by Dr Jagannath Mishra on April 11, 1975. His elder brother Union railway minister Lalit Narayan Mishra was assassinated a few months earlier.
However, on June 12, 1975 the Congress was voted out in Gujarat power after the defeat in Assembly election. A new Janata Morcha government under the leadership of Babubhai Patel took over. The same day Indira Gandhi received another rude shock when Justice Jagmohan Lal Sinha of Allahabad High Court declared her election from Rae Barielly in 1971 as invalid. The order came on the petition filed by Raj Narayan who contested against her in the 1971 general elections. On June 24, the Supreme Court put a partial stay on the Allahabad High Court’s ruling.
On June 25 the opposition called a big rally in Delhi, seeking the resignation of Indira Gandhi. The same night Emergency was imposed and all the leaders were thrown into jail. Press censorship was immediately imposed and there was no voice of dissent anywhere in the country. Today the newspapers are facing a somewhat different type of challenge. Following the lockdown they have to cut down the number of pages and sack a large number of employees. Many regional editions have been closed. Perhaps there is no reason to gag the Press now as it is dying its own death.
The electronic media, not in existence then – barring some exceptions – have let down the country.
The pliant judiciary today needs no arm-twisting like in those dark days.
Forty-five years down the memory lane hardly anyone in the media is discussing the role oil had played in sparking a big upheaval not only in India, but elsewhere in the world too. Amidst immense hardship when local trains are not running in a large part of the country and commuters are forced to rely more heavily on public transport like buses, autos as well as two-wheelers, etc., hardly anybody seems to be bothered about the non-stop rise in fuel prices. This is the new normal in India.