In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, Muslim voters played a pivotal role in shaping the electoral discourse. With Muslims constituting approximately 16 percent of Bihar’s population, their collective voting behaviour significantly influenced the outcomes in several Muslim-concentration constituencies.
Bihar has 32 constituencies where Muslims comprise over 30% of population. In the 2020 elections, division of Muslim votes among various parties led to notable shifts in seat allocations. The All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) emerged as a significant force by winning five seats in the Seemanchal region, which has a substantial Muslim population.
This marked a departure from the traditional dominance of RJD and Congress in these areas. Conversely, JD(U), which had fielded 11 Muslim candidates, failed to secure any seats. This outcome was partly attributed to the party’s support for CAA, which alienated Muslim voters. Additionally, the JD(U)’s alliance with BJPwas perceived unfavourably by Muslims, leading to a significant loss of support.
The RJD, traditionally considered a party with strong Muslim support, secured four seats in Muslim-majority constituencies. However, this was a decline from its performance in 2015, indicating a shift in Muslim voter allegiance. The Congress fielded 12 Muslim candidates and managed to win four seats. Notably, it retained constituencies where it had incumbent Muslim MLAs, showcasing some degree of stability in its Muslim support base.
AIMIM’s entry into Bihar politics marked a significant development. By winning five seats in the Seemanchal region, the party demonstrated its growing influence among Muslim voters, who were seeking alternatives to traditional parties.
The 2020 elections highlighted the evolving dynamics of Muslim political engagement in Bihar. The success of AIMIM indicates a shift towards parties that are perceived as more aligned with Muslim interests, especially in regions like Seemanchal.
This trend suggests that traditional parties may need to reassess their strategies to regain Muslim support. Additionally, JD(U)’s failure to secure any Muslim-majority seats underscores the importance of addressing community concerns, particularly regarding issues like CAA, to maintain electoral viability.
Muslim voters in Bihar have demonstrated a clear preference for parties that resonate with their concerns and aspirations. The 2020 assembly elections serve as a testament to the community’s growing political consciousness and its willingness to support alternatives that align with its interests. Political parties in Bihar must recognise this shift and adapt accordingly to remain relevant in the state’s evolving electoral arithmetic.
Mujibur Rehman, author of Shikwa-e-Hind: The Political Future of Indian Muslims said, “Nitish may face a substantial loss of Muslim votes not because of Waqf but owing to his long-term support for BJP. Many of his Muslim faces have abandoned him. It also depends how RJD and Tejaswi Yadav are mobilising. What needs to be watched is the alliance that RJD is considering with Owasi. If Owasi joins, it will add some fire power against Nitish. In any case, this is Nitish last election and BJP may consume Nitish party hereafter. As it did to Naveen Patnaik’s party in neighbouring Odisha.”
“With Nitish Kumar’s opportunistic stand on the Waqf Bill, the Muslim vote may very well desert him and flock towards TejaswiYadav’dRJD. If the Muslim vote does migrate en masse to RJD, it would mean a return to the consolidation of Muslims in Bihar behind RJD that was a significant component in the political dominance of the Lalu-dominated RJD years from 1990 to 2005,” said political analyst, Amir Ali who teaches Political Science at JNU.
“However, it is unlikely that RJD can recreate that kind of political dominance even with the Muslim vote consolidating behind the party, given the fact that the ruling BJP in alliance with Nitish Kumar, will contest this election with as much enthusiasm and determination as it seems to deploy in every election,” said Amir.
According to Dr.MaskoorUsmani, former President AMU, “For years, Nitish Kumar cleverly cultivated an image of being a “leader of all,” often showcasing symbolic gestures like aid to madrasas, dargahs, and minority institutions to project himself as a secular figure. Even during his alliances with BJP, a significant section of the Muslim communitycontinued to extend him the benefit of doubt. But now, the mask has completely fallen.”
“His open support for the deeply controversial Waqf Amendment Bill has proven to be a watershed moment- one that has permanently severed the fragile trust the Muslim community had reposed in him. This betrayal, especially to the religious and social leadership of Muslims, cannot be brushed aside as mere political compulsion,” said Usmani.
“The reality is this: Nitish Kumar has lost control over his own party. Today, JDU leaders like Lallan Singh and Sanjay Jha speak the language of the RSS on the floors of Parliament, showing how deeply the Sangh Parivar has penetrated the party. Nitish Kumar has been reduced to nothing more than a puppet—helplessly watching the RSS agenda being pushed under his nose,” he said.
“The mass resignation of Muslim leaders from JDU after the Waqf Bill episode is a clear signal: Muslims are not willing to be used as vote banks anymore. They see through the hypocrisy and opportunism. The community has realized that Nitish Kumar is no longer the man who once claimed to protect their interests—he now stands as an enabler of those who seek to undermine their institutions and identity, said the former AMUSU President.
“Politically, this is a body blow to the JDU. Nitish’s core support base—the Kurmi community—makes up barely 3.5% of the state’s population. Without the support of Muslims, the JDU faces an existential crisis. The party may soon find itself irrelevant in Bihar’s evolving political landscape. The coming elections will be the ultimate verdict. Nitish Kumar’s betrayal will not be forgiven, and the Muslim community of Bihar will ensure that their voices are heard- loud, clear, and united,” said Usmani .