Mohammad Naushad Khan analyses the Assembly elections verdict, especially that of Uttar Pradesh and concludes that it has thrown many challenges and opportunities before the nation goes to polls in 2019.
The verdict of the Assembly elections has surprised almost all poll predictors, psephologists and political strategists. The Uttar Pradesh verdict in particular has overshadowed the euphoria of the Congress numerical gain in three states. This verdict has a lesson for one and all, even the BJP.
The BJP which has performed even better than 2014 in Uttar Pradesh by cutting across caste and class divide is a reminder that the party has a greater responsibility towards people’s aspiration of inclusive growth while keeping intact the secular and democratic credential. Because after all cards, it is the development card that will gain strength one year after another and most of divisive issues will fade away gradually.
After every poor performance by the Congress Party, the change of guard is often debated and discussed in television studios. But what goes missing from the debate is that it is far more important to connect with the people on the ground and bind them in a political language which is even far more important than change in the leadership. The grassroots level work is always missing and Congress leader Sandeep Dixit has already made a point that there is existential crisis in the Congress. Despite fantastic gift to Amarinder Singh by the voters of Punjab and maximum number of seats for the Congress in Manipur and Goa, the party has to seriously introspect to keep its national political identity intact, alive and ticking.
Besides numerical impact, the verdict is also likely to have some kind of psychological impact especially on regional and national forces. It is true that the election strategy, poll management and caste engineering with added flavour of divisive rhetoric galvanised the masses in favour of the BJP. Its immediate psychological impact on the BJP would be: they could either presume themselves to be unbeatable or may even become arrogant. But it would be in the interest of the people and the country if they are driven by the impulse to respond to the verdict accordingly and abide by earlier famous slogan sab ka saath sab ka vikas in real terms rather than mere rhetoric. For, every massive mandate increases the expectations of the people manifold and it requires to be reciprocated accordingly.
The political language of alliance between Congress and the SP was a bit confusing and purely based on illusionary gain. The alliance was late and the participation was not on equal footing. The citadel of regional forces in Uttar Pradesh has crumbled badly and they will have to join the bits and pieces to rise up to the occasion. If we analyse the given data then mahagatbandhan (grand alliance) on the pattern of Bihar could have helped the regional forces to be on the comfortable side.
Now as per figures available, BJP got 41 per cent SC votes, OBC 42 per cent, general caste 44 per cent, Jat 45 per cent and Yadav 38 per cent. SP and Congress got 26 per cent of SC votes, OBC 28 per cent, general caste 24 per cent, Jat 22 per cent and Yadav 32 per cent. BSP got 25 per cent SC votes, OBC votes 23 per cent, general caste 21 per cent, Jat 21 per cent and Yadav 22 per cent (NDTV). The figures clearly say that there is end of caste divide in UP. But if we add the figures of SP, Congress and BSP, then collectively they could have received 51 per cent SC votes which is more than 41 per cent of what BJP got. Similarly, the total percentage of votes of OBC for the alliance is 51, which is again more than BJP’s 42 per cent. The alliance received 45 per cent of general caste votes which is more than 44 per cent of what BJP got. BJP got 45 per cent of Jat votes against 43 per cent of the total regional forces combined got. Likewise, BJP got 38 per cent of Yadav votes and the SP, Congress and BSP received together 54 per cent. Now a close comparison of this figure reminds how badly the regional forces failed to learn the political language that had emerged from the Bihar polls.
Senior journalist Ram Dutt Tripathi, who was correspondent for BBC in Lucknow for more than over two decades, while speaking to Radiance, said the political message either for the national or regional parties, is the same. There is missing link between political organisational level and the grassroots level. It should be visible that parties are working for them on the ground honestly and not for their own self and for their family interest only. The collective aspiration of the people on the ground has to be realised and worked upon. There are varieties of people here and all want their share in power and not only development of roads and lanes and others. The BJP has expanded its umbrella in that direction. Nitish became successful because he did that in Bihar. But Mayawati, Akhilesh and Rahul failed to do that in Uttar Pradesh.
This figure has also a lesson for the future. In the run up to the fight for Muslim votes among SP and Congress, RLD, AIMIM and BSP, the Hindu votes polarised towards BJP. If we analyse voters’ message from the verdict then what Parsa Venkateshwar Roa Jr has said in his article in the Asian Age on 12 March under the heading, “UP voted for change, not ideology.” It appears to be reasonable and true. He has said, “People want change and a change for the better. This is the only reason that the BJP has been voted to power now…. The BJP’s victory in UP then is not the people’s seal of approval of Hindutva, either benign or vicious.”
The biggest surprise of this election to me was that the human right activists Irom Sharmila from Manipur who even after fighting a decade long battle could garner only 90 votes. No matter how the parties will respond to but the verdict 2017 has thrown many challenges and opportunities before 2019.