The situation is grim and looks unsalvageable for now, observes Arshad Shaikh
In the first week of March, India’s health minister, Harsh Vardhan asserted: “We are in the end game of the Covid-19 pandemic in India.” This confidence stemmed from data that the reported cases per day in India had reduced from 93,000 (in mid-September 2020) to around 11,000 by February 2021.
Speaking at a conference, the minister described how the ‘Made in India’ vaccines had excellent efficacy and were exported to poor and underdeveloped countries as part of our much-lauded policy of international cooperation.
He claimed: “Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India, has emerged as the world’s pharmacy, and it supplied 5.51 crore Covid-19 vaccines to 62 different countries.”
However, as the events unfolded in the next month and a half, those very assertions have come to haunt the health minister, his party, the government and the country’s reputation. That is because, since mid-March, the number of reported cases per day in India started rising almost exponentially as the second wave of the Corona pandemic hit us with a ferocity that has truly shaken the foundations of our healthcare system and unmasked our incompetence in planning, governance and administration that is both embarrassing and unforgivable.
At the time of writing, we are at 3.86 lakh cases a day with 3498 deaths and according to international experts, that figure may reach even up to 5 lakh cases a day with close to 5000 deaths on a daily basis. Our health infra stands completely exposed. There are no beds available in hospitals, there is a shortage of medical oxygen and our vaccination policy and vaccination targets are under the scanner.
LIFELINES CUT OFF
Adding to the misery were accidents in which 22 patients died for lack of oxygen in Nasik, Maharashtra because of an oxygen tank leak and 15 patients died as a fire engulfed the ICU ward of a hospital in Virar, a suburb of Mumbai.
Another unfortunate incident that is bound to remain a blot on our collective conscience for a long time to come is the loss of 25 precious lives at Delhi’s top private hospital – Sir Gangaram Hospital. Their Medical Director sent out an SOS message on 23 April saying: “25 sickest patients have died in last 24 hours. Oxygen will last another two hours. Ventilators and BiPAP (ventilators for invasive treatment) not working effectively. Resorting to manual ventilation in ICUs and Emergency. Major crisis likely. Lives of another 60 sickest patients at risk, need urgent intervention.”
Although Gangaram’s Chairman tried to clarify that the deaths cannot be attributed to loss of oxygen, his own Medical Director told the media: “Low oxygen concentration likely contributed to deaths of critical patients. Critical patients need high pressure, stable oxygen supply.”
There are similar tragedies elsewhere too. Dr. DK Baluja, Medical Director at Jaipur Golden Hospital, told NDTV: “We had been allotted 3.5 metric tons of oxygen from the government. The supply was to reach us by 5 in the evening, but it reached around midnight. By then, 25 patients had died.” Similar news is coming regarding the death of 5 patients in Amritsar’s Neelkanth Multispecialty Hospital.
Our dire situation was articulated by the Chief Minister of Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal when he told Prime Minister during a meeting, in a voice cracking with fear and concern: “There’s a huge shortage of oxygen in Delhi. Will people of Delhi not get oxygen if there is no oxygen-producing plant here? Please suggest whom should I speak to when a patient at a hospital in Delhi is about to die due to lack of oxygen supply? We can’t let people die. I appeal to you to take strict action, else there will be a tragedy in Delhi. I am not able to do anything despite being the chief minister. I’m not able to sleep throughout the night. Please pardon me if there would be any untoward incident in the future.”
There were horrific scenes of patients struggling to get admitted in hospitals, some lying in ambulances and some on pavements with oxygen cylinders by their side. One saw long queues in front of hospital pharmacies for the much-sought Remdesivir medicine.
SOS messages by social-media influencers with millions of followers begging for leads to hospital beds and oxygen supplies were so chilling and macabre that they are bound to remain etched in our shared memory for a long time to come.
But how did all this happen in such a short period. Is our fall from grace as ‘vaccine guru’ to the ‘worst hit’ a systemic failure or fallout of incompetent and insipid governance? How do we come out of this situation and how can we avoid a repetition of a similar chain of events in case of a third wave?
WHEN YOU FAIL TO PLAN, YOU PLAN TO FAIL
The Prime Minister addressed the World Economic Forum on 28 January this year. He claimed: “The fears raised by experts and advanced countries last year about India being overwhelmed by the pandemic were proved false. It was predicted that India would reel under a Tsunami of Covid-19, but nothing of this kind happened and we handled the crisis well and are also well prepared.”
The BJP passed a resolution on 21 February 2021. Under the heading “Vaccine victory”, the ruling party wrote: “The country is steadily advancing in the direction of complete triumph over Covid. This became possible because under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the relentless efforts of the scientists working in the medical field succeeded in ensuring the availability of two India-manufactured vaccines.”
Meanwhile, election rallies in West Bengal and Assam and ‘shahi snans’ (holy baths) at the Kumbh Mela were carried on with gay abandon, throwing all social distancing protocols to the winds. The broad message to the nation was sab changa si (all is well).
By mid-March cases had begun rising and the government blamed it on the carelessness of people. By the end of March as cases climbed to 62,000 the ruling class was busy promoting the PM as global leader in vaccines. Holi was celebrated with great fanfare. A pliant media acted as the government’s spokesperson and failed to question the government on its ill preparedness over an impending second wave. This was in sharp contrast to mainstream media’s approach over the ijtema by the Tablighi Jamaat at Markaz Nizamuddin, last year.
Our failure to plan for the second wave is most visible if we probe the current vaccination numbers we have achieved and the shortage of vaccines we are currently experiencing wherein we have to import vaccines from other countries. We have cancelled the earlier phased rollout of vaccination that prioritised those over 45 with comorbidities and are now offering it to anyone above 18 years of age.
In a revealing article by the Wire (How the Modi government overestimated India’s Capacity to make COVID vaccines, the information about capacity limitations was available from day one and the government overlooked it / dated 23 April), Neeta Sanghi writes: “The government banned exports formally only in the last week of March, after a clamour erupted over vaccine shortage within the country. The government also didn’t support the manufacturers with funds, either through grants or as advance payments against future supplies. The manufacturers had to stockpile at their own risk. The government’s handling of supply, planning and procurement of the vaccines should serve as a case study of how not to manage a supply chain in crisis situations.”
The situation is grim and looks unsalvageable for now.