Although the BJP-led Mahayuti “swept” Maharashtra Assembly elections, the entire voting process was called into serious doubt. Since Maha Vikas Aghadi, which performed exceedingly well in the general elections five months ago, failed not to see this plot, independent analysts argued that Maharashtra was a rerun of the Haryana model on a larger scale than Haryana. Thus, the outcome is enigmatic and inexplicable on every parameter.
In Maharashtra, MVA secured only 46 seats and none of the coalition members received even 10% of seats required to be appointed Leader of the Opposition. Shiv Sena, led by Uddav Thackeray, secured the most seats (20), followed by Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar) with 10 and Congress with 16. Shiv SenaUBT leader Aaditya Thackeray, who kept his Worli seat, and Congress State President Nana Patole, who just made it, are among MVA winners. Yashomati Thakur, eight-term MLA BalasahebThorat, and former Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan were among the Congress heavyweights who lost. In the meantime, NCP leader AjitPawar prevailed in the Pawar family fight in Baramati, defeating nephew YugendraPawar by over one lakh votes.
The ruling Mahayuti’s allies NCP gained 41 seats and Shiv Sena 56 seats. With 230 of 288 seats in the State Assembly belonging to the alliance, Maharashtra saw a Mahayuti sweep. With 132 seats, the BJP became the biggest party in the state.
The Majhi LadkiBahin Yojana plan, a large proportion of female votes, community outreach initiatives, improved internal coordination, and the RSS factor have all been cited by Mahayuti leaders as reasons for their overwhelming election win. The term of the present Assembly expires on November 26. Within the next three days, the Mahayuti is expected to establish the government, but the Chief Minister’s role has not yet been decided.
In contrast, Jharkhand voters have resoundingly rejected the BJP’s politics of communal polarisation and the bogy of the so-called Bangladeshi infiltrators. For the first time since the creation of the State in 2000, the same leadership is coming back to power in succession, with Hemant Soren’s JMM-led alliance poised to hold onto Jharkhand’s 81-member State Assembly.
JMM had its highest electoral result in Jharkhand, gaining 34 out of 56 seats gained by JMM-led INDIA bloc. The RJD took four seats, Congress took 16, and CPI(M-L) Liberation took two. The All Jharkhand Students Union, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), and JD-U each gained one seat, while NDA managed only 24 seats, which is fewer than the number of seats won by the BJP in the previous Assembly election.
Provocative rhetoric about “infiltration by Bangladeshis,” corruption, and demographic shifts in the Santal Pargana, together with BJP’s slogans “Batenge to Katenge” (divided, we will be destroyed) and “Ekhai to safe hai” (unified, we are safe), appear to have backfired in the State. It was also thought that Champai Soren and Shibu Soren daughter-in-law, Sita Soren joining the BJP was also perceived as an effort to break up Hemant Soren’s party.
Soren defeated GamilyelHembrom of BJP to win Barhait Assembly segment. Voters’ anti-incumbency feeling seems to have decreased as a result of Soren’s arrest by the Enforcement Directorate in connection with a suspected money laundering case and subsequent incarceration. His wife, Kalpana Soren, defeated Muniya Devi of BJP to win Gandey seat. Notable figures who lost include Sita Soren of Jamtara, Champai Soren’s son Babulal Soren, and Amar Kumar Bauri, Leader of the Opposition in the State Assembly. The spouses of two former chief ministers, Arjun Munda’s wife Meera Munda and Madhu Koda’s wife Geetha Koda, both lost in Jaganathpur and Potka, respectively.
Women voters are claimed to have been drawn to INDIA bloc by MaiyaSamman Yojana, a cash transfer programme that offers ₹1,000 per month in four instalments prior to the election. Additionally, the INDIA bloc was backed by Muslims and tribal people, who are regarded as JMM’s largest electoral base.
However, Maharashtra results have once again put a big question mark on the integrity and impartiality of the poll panel. How can one explain the debacle of MVA or INDIA bloc which secured 31 out of 48 parliamentary seats from the state in the 2024 general election held just five months back? While BJP contested 28 parliamentary seats and got only nine seats and its strike rate was merely 32 percent. Now in the assembly election BJP contested 148 seats and won 132 with a whopping strike rate of almost 90 percent.
Furthermore, there was no untoward incident that would have created a sympathy wave in favour of the ruling coalition. For example, then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s assassination created a tsunami in favour of Congress which swept the 1984 general elections. There was no such thing in Maharashtra.And a majority of people cannot change their political loyalty overnight in the absence of any such happenings.
A political analyst said they did not touch the Jharkhand just to justify the results of Maharashtra and the credibility of Election Commission. After the indictment of Adani by a US federal court, stakes were very high in Maharashtra.
Dazed by the debacle, Shiv Sena (UBT) President and former CM Uddhav Thackeray said it seems like a tsunami swept aside MVA, but felt that “there’s definitely some ‘gadbad’ (rigging) that has taken place.”
“It was not just a wave, but a tsunami… This was beyond all expectations… Some say it’s the victory of the EVMs… Maybe. But if it’s also acceptable to the masses then we have nothing to add,” said Thackeray, addressing media persons.
He recalled how BJP said once that only one party would survive in the country, “We are now moving in that direction, but whether it is acceptable to the people or not remains a question.”
“There are many doubts… Why have the people voted so heavily for MahaYuti? What was their sudden love for them? A large number of women, farmers and youth attended our rallies for their concerns compared with the emptiness in MahaYuti’s public meetings,” said Thackeray.
On the impact of ‘LadkiBahin’ dole, SS(UBT) supremo said that even more than that, women were worried about insecurity, high inflation, anger among the farmers and unemployment hitting the youth.
A shaken SS(UBT) MP Sanjay Raut also raised doubts on the outcome, claiming that “we had gauged the mood of the masses” and hinted at money-power and other factors as responsible for the huge defeat. He posted on X against the results and demanded re-elections, this time on the ballot paper. “The result of Maharashtra is not the voice of the people.”
On similar lines, Congress also described Maharashtra results as “absolutely strange, inexplicable and beyond comprehension”. With 13 seats in the Parliamentary election, Congress emerged as the largest party in the state which contested over 100 Assembly seats but managed only 19 seats. The party said that it was targeted manipulation of the outcome as unknown faces of BJP won the elections with ease while INDIA partners senior leaders lost them.
Party General Secretary and in-charge Communications Jairam Ramesh and chairman of the Media and Publicity Department Pawan Khera said the results were not only surprising for them (the Congress) but even those who have won the elections.
Ramesh said, “We can say that even those who won did not anticipate that this result would come”. Alleging that there was “some conspiracy somewhere to get us defeated,” he said, it was a targeted manipulation to deliver targeted results with each senior leader of Congress, NCP(SP) and Shiv Sena (UBT) being targeted for the defeat. He said, while the non-entities from BJP won, prominent MVA leaders were made to lose. “What some people say as micro-management was the manipulation at the ground level,” he remarked.
Ramesh observed that the farmers of Maharashtra were angry, the working class of Maharashtra was against the government and the atmosphere in the state was the same as five months ago, when BJP fared badly in the Parliamentary elections. “But the results that have come are completely opposite to this.”
Meanwhile, in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, Muslim voters largely supported INDIA bloc parties respectively but failed to get due representation in the legislature once again. In both the states Muslims account over 13 percent. Maharashtra had nine Muslim candidates win, and Jharkhand saw four Muslim candidates win.
All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) managed to win only one seat out of the 16 it contested. The party’s incumbent MLA, Mufti Mohammed Ismail, emerged victorious from Malegaon Central. It has two seats in the outgoing assembly. Additionally, AIMIM candidates secured second place on four seats. It said Maulana Sajjad Nomani’s proactive role in the election has proved counterproductive. He first announced contesting election in alliance with Maratha reservation warrior Jarange Patil but later Patil backed out from the plan. Then Maulana Nomani held a press conference in Mumbai to announce the list of candidates whom Muslim voters cast their support in the election.