When six out the seven Janata Dal-United MLAs of Arunachal Pradesh crossed over to join the Bharatiya Janata Party on December 25 just hours before the arrival of Union Home Minister Amit Shah to neighbouring Assam, the first reaction of the Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar was that it is not something unusual. He tried to downplay this development as his Janata Dal-United is an alliance partner of the BJP in Bihar. It is another thing that two days later his party’s national spokesman, K C Tyagi after the national executive meeting (December 26-27) said that the wooing away of the six Janata Dal-United legislators violates the spirit of alliance dharma. He said that instead of taking them into the cabinet the Chief Minister of the state broke six out of the seven legislators.
But when Nitish initially said that such action of his Arunachal legislators is not something unusual he was very much correct. Horse-trading is very common, especially in the smaller states where the strength of the Assembly is much limited. Even breaking away two-thirds of any legislative party is not a very challenging job.
This is a common phenomenon, especially in the North-East.
Yet the development in Arunachal Pradesh on Christmas Day was somewhat different. The BJP government led by Pema Khandu was very much comfortably placed with 41 MLAs in the House of 60. Apart from six JD-U MLAs the BJP had allured one legislator of the Peoples Party of Arunachal.
So, its strength rose to 48.
But if one traces the history of the state politics, especially of 2016 one would come to know that Pema Khandu as the chief minister himself had switched side several times.
While the then Chief Minister of Haryana Bhajan Lal had done this only once – that is as the CM of the then Janata Party he had crossed over to the Congress after the latter returned to power at the Centre in January 1980 – Pema Khandu did it at least thrice in the matter of a few months.
But Bhajan Lal as CM crossed over much before Anti-Defection Law was enacted, Pema Khandu did so years after the Act was made to discourage horse-trading.
On September 16, 2016, 43 out of 44 Congress legislators, including Chief Minister Khandu, joined the Peoples Party of Arunachal, a part of the North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), a BJP-led front.
Then on December 31 the same year 33 out of the 43 PPA MLAs, including CM Khandu, finally joined the BJP.
He led his party (BJP) to victory in the May 2019 Assembly election.
The recent development in Arunachal Pradesh cannot be seen in isolation. While the message was given to Nitish, the BJP wanted to make it amply clear that it is gearing up for the Assembly election in Assam, which would take place along with West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry in the summer of 2021.
Home Minister Amit Shah had paid a two-day visit to Assam, the first of its kind after the enactment of the Citizenship Amendment Act last December. The CAA was widely opposed in Assam leading to the death of several people.
The BJP will have to do a lot of tight rope walking in the Assembly elections as the situation in Assam and West Bengal is quite different. The anti-Bengali feeling is still strong in Assam though Amit Shah said that Assam did not gain anything from the movement.
While the passage of CAA evoked sharp reaction in Assam, the BJP is trying its level best to project that it is in favour of the people of West Bengal.
So far breaking the main rival party is concerned, this is a common practice going on since the Congress days. But what is happening after 2014 is the wooing of the legislators of the trusted alliance partners of the BJP.
The campaign of the Congress-mukt (free) India is understandable but the process of weakening of the friends is something new. The move backfired in Maharashtra where Shiv Sena parted ways after the October 2019 Assembly election. It formed government with the arch rival the Nationalist Congress Party and the Congress.
Two months later, in December 2019, the alliance between the BJP and All Jharkhand Students Union broke down leading to the rout of both in the Assembly election. The BJP broke an old alliance over the seat-sharing arrangement. Though AJSU support was always very crucial for its performance.
In the recent months the BJP lost Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab and Rashtriya Loktantrik Party in Rajasthan – both on the issue of farm laws.
Now the BJP has deliberately pushed the Janata Dal United to the corner.
It allured its MLAs only after the party’s poor performance in the recently held Bihar Assembly election. Had Nitish Kumar’s party done well, the BJP might have not broken the Janata Dal-United in Arunachal Pradesh.
Needless to suggest, the BJP had already mastered the art of circumventing the clause of two-thirds MLAs and thus bringing down the government of rival parties. It has done so in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh and almost succeeded in Rajasthan, where the Congress managed to finally keep its flock together.