The debacle of the Opposition in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections has thrown some serious questions on electoral democracy. With the BJP-led NDA securing a landslide, the verdict offers a stark reality check and several hard lessons for Opposition parties like Congress, TMC, Samajwadi Party, and others within the INDIA bloc to introspect.
For Congress, the Bihar election was nothing short of disastrous. Contesting 61 seats, it bagged just six, marking one of its worst performances in the state. The low number has triggered introspection within the party, with voices calling out internal disconnect and poor ground organisation. Strategically, Congress’s “vote chori” campaign, spearheaded by Rahul Gandhi, failed to mobilise voters effectively. Analysts argue that the party over-relied on alliances, especially with RJD, without building its own base. In effect, the party became a weak link in the Mahagathbandhan, unable to shape its own destiny.
Although TMC, SP, and other regional secular parties were not direct contenders in large numbers in Bihar, the reverberations of its outcome will strongly influence their role within the broader Opposition.
In the wake of Congress’s poor showing, there are growing calls notably from within the INDIA bloc to shift the leadership mantle away from Congress and hand it to Mamata Banerjee. Some TMC leaders argue that Banerjee’s unblemished record of defeating the BJP in West Bengal makes her a more credible face for a multi-state Opposition platform.
While SP didn’t contest heavily in Bihar, the verdict weakens Congress’s bargaining power in upcoming regional state talks, especially in Uttar Pradesh. There is a notion that in some states, SP might prefer to negotiate with partners other than Congress, given the latter’s faltering performance.
For both parties, the Bihar result is a wake-up call and relying on Congress as the anchor in a pan-India Opposition alliance may no longer be tenable.
The Mahagathbandhan in Bihar failed to present a unified, coherent front. There were reports of poor coordination, with “friendly” contests and diluted messaging. This fragmentation undermined the idea of a consolidated anti-NDA force.
Neither Congress nor its regional partners could match the NDA’s grassroots strength. While the NDA projected development and welfare (especially for women and backward communities), the Opposition’s pitch failed to resonate. Congress’s campaign didn’t translate into effective organisation or voter enthusiasm, which reflected in its poor performance.
While regional parties like SP or TMC have strong bases in their home states, their visibility and influence in Bihar remain limited. Meanwhile, Congress failed to present a compelling lead figure in the state. The result was a leadership vacuum.
Lessons for Congress and Secular Regional Parties
Rebuild Local Organisational Strength: National rhetoric alone doesn’t win state elections. Congress and its partners must invest in grassroots cadres, connect with local leaders, and rebuild organisational depth.
Redefine the Opposition Narrative: Blaming the Election Commission or focusing on “vote theft” (SIR controversy) didn’t translate into votes. The secular bloc needs a positive, development-centric narrative that resonates, especially with marginalised groups similar to the social-welfare messaging that helped the NDA win.
Leadership Realignment: The push for Mamata Banerjee to lead parts of the Opposition suggests a wider appetite for reimagining leadership. Regional parties must evaluate whether to assert more influence in the INDIA bloc, rather than deferring to Congress, especially when it underperforms.
Effective Alliances, Not Just Alliances of Convenience: Seat-sharing must be more strategic, not transactional. Alliances should involve deep coordination, joint campaigning, and shared ground resources. Friendly contests and weak coordination hurt the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar.
Diversify Base Beyond Traditional Votes: Relying on caste or core vote banks is no longer enough. The secular opposition must find ways to reach out to women, backward classes, youth, and first-time voters demographics that NDA effectively targeted in Bihar.
The Bihar verdict weakens Congress’s claim to lead INDIA bloc unchallenged. With its negotiating power weakened, its partner’s especially regional heavyweights like TMC and SP may demand a reshuffling of roles or more say in strategy.
There is now a genuine conversation within the opposition about shifting the bloc’s centre of gravity. If TMC or SP takes on a stronger leadership role, it could reshape alliance dynamics, seat sharing, and the overall opposition narrative ahead of the upcoming critical state elections.
The Bihar election results are more than just a state-level outcome; they are a barometer for the health of India’s secular opposition. For Congress, it’s a night of reckoning: a reflection of declining roots and strategic missteps. For regional secular parties, it’s an opportunity but also a challenge: can they step up, assert leadership, and rebuild a credible counterweight to the NDA?
If they want to avoid repeating Bihar’s outcome elsewhere, the time for introspection is now. The Bihar debacle comes ahead of a series of key elections starting with Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam, Puducherry and Kerala next year, followed by Goa, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat in 2027.