When Exit Polls Go Awry

Exit polls are conducted after voters have cast their ballots in an election but before the official results are announced. Exit polls provide an early indication of the election outcome before the official results are released. They cater to the public and media curiosity about the likely winners. They can also offer insights into voter behavior, such as which demographics supported which candidates or parties, and why voters made their choices. This helps in analyzing trends and shifts in voter preferences.

There could be several factors in play if exit polls results differ significantly from the official results. In the case of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, exit polls became a matter of national debate in the media as almost all exit polls predicted the BJP to comfortably bag a simple majority on its own. However, as the actual results poured in and the BJP was stopped in its tracks at 240 Lok Sabha seats, the spotlight moved towards the agencies who conducted the exit polls in collaboration with various TV media channels.

Way off the mark

If we look at the numbers the NDA was projected to get by the exit polls as can be seen in the Table, we realize that almost all had a common mandate to push the NDA numbers to the 350+ mark, almost as if these media channels were instructed by some entity to do so.

Concerns over methodology and integrity

Gross inaccuracies as was the case this time in the 2024 elections raise natural questions about the reliability of these polls. This is not a one-off occurrence, as in the past too exit polls have been completely off the mark such as the Lok Sabha elections in 2004 and assembly elections in Bihar (2015) and Chhattisgarh (2023).

Inaccurate exit polls can have a substantial economic impact. For example, the BSE Sensex and the NIFTY surged by 3% based on exit poll predictions and then plummeted by 6% when the actual results were announced. The Congress party has demanded a JPC to probe this phenomenon, accusing the exit polls to be rigged by certain entities who benefited from this sudden volatility in the stock market.

Pollsters should scrutinize their methodologies, particularly how sample households and respondents are chosen, to ensure they accurately represent the voting population. Questions about underrepresented voter sections, sampling errors, and the framing of questions should also be checked. There must be stricter disclosure norms regarding the funding of polling firms and their surveys to enhance credibility and transparency.

The latest exit polls have put a severe dent into the credibility of TV media, which sponsor these surveys. Pollsters also need to answer tough questions to maintain their credibility and avoid fueling conspiracy theories about their motives.