Under the shadow of unprecedented allegations of election fraud, JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar was sworn in as Chief Minister of Bihar for a record tenth time. His longevity in power, despite repeatedly switching alliances between BJP and RJD, has long shaped Bihar’s political landscape. But the 2025 Assembly election marks perhaps the most controversial chapter of his career.
The BJP-led NDA’s sweeping victory, securing 202 out of 243 seats, has triggered one of the most serious crises of electoral trust in modern India. What should have been a routine democratic contest has instead become a case study in accusations of massive voter roll manipulation, state-sponsored influence, misuse of machinery, polarising propaganda, and an Election Commission allegedly acting as a silent collaborator.
The opposition, primarily RJD and the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), has labelled the verdict “unnatural,” “manufactured,” and “a loot of democracy.” They argue that the scale and pattern of irregularities point to an election tilted at a structural level, with ECI allegedly facilitating or ignoring large-scale distortions that overwhelmingly benefited NDA.
RJD’s Charge: The “Magic of EVMs” and the Power of Money
Reduced to only 25 seats, RJD quickly alleged that the election bore the “fingerprints of manipulation.” At a review meeting chaired by Tejashwi Yadav, state party president Mangani Lal Mandal claimed a “thorough review” had exposed the “magic of EVMs.”
According to Mandal, the party found signs of machine-level vote distortion and an unprecedented flow of money during the campaign. He alleged that RJD workers were detained, harassed, and prevented from mobilising support, and that multiple complaints to ECI were ignored.
While there is no verified proof of EVM tampering, the Opposition argues that the ECI’s refusal to investigate their concerns strengthens the perception that the institution has lost its neutrality. Mandal went so far as to demand the abolition of EVMs and a return to ballot boxes to restore electoral credibility.
The Most Explosive Allegation: Manipulation via SIR
The most serious data-backed accusation concerns Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter rolls carried out shortly before the polls. Analysts had already warned that SIR was unusually abrupt, opaque, and poorly monitored. Final numbers were staggering: 68 lakh voters deleted, only 24 lakh added.
Post-election analysis suggests that these deletions were not random but strategically concentrated in Mahagathbandhan strongholds, especially areas with high concentrations of Muslim and Yadav voters, the RJD’s core base.
Key findings include:
- Deletions exceeded victory margins in 11 constituencies: In these seats, the number of voters removed was greater than the NDA’s winning margin, raising the possibility that the deletion process directly altered the results.
- NDA allegedly gained structural advantage in 128 seats: Opposition leaders argue that this number correlates suspiciously with areas most impacted by SIR deletions.
- Disproportionate targeting of MGB voters: Data shows 208 more deletions per seat in MGB-won constituencies than NDA seats, and Muslim deletions nearly double in MGB seats (421 vs. 224). A higher share of Muslim voters among the deleted in MGB regions (27.2%) compared to NDA regions (16.7%). These numbers indicate a systematic demographic tilt, sharply disadvantaging the Opposition.
- Seemanchal saw the highest deletions: The Muslim-concentration Seemanchal belt (Kishanganj, Araria, Purnia, Katihar) witnessed deletions more than double the state average. Meanwhile, NDA bastions like Magadh and Tirhut saw strikingly low deletion rates.
- Congress and RJD suffered the most: Their constituencies recorded the highest total and Muslim deletions, while BJP constituencies ranked among the least affected.
- Pattern persists across general and SC seats: While both seat types showed disparities, general constituencies, where the Muslim-Yadav vote is potent, faced the heaviest blow.
- MGB seats overwhelmingly classified as “high deletion” areas: 51.8% of MGB seats exceeded the state’s average deletion rate. Only 39.2% of NDA seats did. For extreme deletions over 2,000, MGB seats outnumbered NDA 21 to 5.
To the Opposition, these patterns are not coincidental but statistically damning, suggesting that the voter deletion process itself may have engineered the NDA’s victory long before polling began.
Alleged Misuse of State Machinery and Financial Power
Opposition parties accuse the NDA government of weaponizing state institutions to tilt the election.
- Strategic cash transfers and welfare accelerations: Samajwadi Party leaders allege that money was deposited in women’s bank accounts, a pillar of NDA support, days before voting, in violation of the Model Code of Conduct. RJD termed the move a “bribe at scale,” pointing to the timing of increased pension payouts and reduced electricity bills.
- Importing cadres from outside Bihar: Opposition parties claim that special trains were used to bring in BJP supporters from neighbouring states to swell the voting base, an allegation the ECI did not probe.
- Communal and caste polarisation: Speeches by the Prime Minister and Home Minister were accused of inflaming religious and caste sentiments. Critics argue the ECI allowed open violations of MCC, reinforcing perceptions of institutional complicity.
- Media capture and narrative control: A compliant national media amplified NDA’s messaging while underplaying Mahagathbandhan’s concerns, creating an atmosphere in which opposition voices struggled to be heard.
Turnout, Vote Share and Suspicious Discrepancies
The election saw an unexpected turnout surge: 67% overall, and 71.6% among women. Yet the NDA’s voteshare barely increased from 2024 Lok Sabha elections, raising questions about how such a small shift translated into such a massive jump in seats.
The vote counting process also creates suspicious pattern. For example, BJP candidates Samrat Chaudhry, Vijay Kumar Sinha, Niraj Kumar Singh and Krishna Kumar Rishi have won by a margin of over 1,22,400 votes. The Opposition called it “daylight robbery” as all four candidates had faced stiff opposition in their respective seats.
Analysts also flagged inconsistencies between postal ballots and EVM counts, and a sharp drop in votes for “Other” parties, both trends that often accompany manipulated elections.
Unfair or Fraudulent?
Experts caution against conflating two distinct concerns:Unfair elections: A tilted playing field; and Fraudulent elections: Manipulation of votes cast by citizens. Most allegations – voter deletions, misuse of state power, cash inducements, propaganda – fall into the unfair category. However, the scale, concentration, and demographic specificity of irregularities have led many to argue that the 2025 Bihar election crossed a line into what might be termed structural fraud, even if direct tampering with EVMs remains unproven.
Some analysts argue the NDA possessed inherent advantages regardless of malpractice: a broader social coalition, stronger EBC support, and an opposition campaign that peaked too late. But even they concede that these factors do not explain the magnitude of NDA’s victory, only its plausibility.
A Deepening Crisis of Electoral Faith
The Bihar election has amplified a growing national concern: that India’s democratic institutions, especially the ECI, may no longer be functioning as neutral arbiters. For marginalised communities, particularly Muslims and the poor, the electoral process increasingly appears not merely biased but captured.
In this context, an open letter issued by a group of 272 citizens, comprising 16 judges, 123 retired bureaucrats, 14 former ambassadors, and 133 retired military officers, has been viewed as a defence of the ECI. They criticised Rahul Gandhi, who has been at the forefront of exposing the alleged complicity of the Chief Election Commissioner with the ruling party.Interestingly, one among the 272 “eminent citizens” who signed the letter to Rahul Gandhi is former IAS officer Keshav Desiraju,who had died in 2021.
After Haryana and Maharashtra, whether Bihar is a rehearsal for future elections remains to be seen. Many view the upcoming contests in West Bengal and UP as decisive tests of whether India’s electoral democracy can still withstand political pressure or whether the Bihar model becomes the new normal.