Growth Rate Alarm: Fiction and Facts
By MOHD ABDUL RAHIM QURAISHI
During the 1961 Census operations in Assam, West Bengal, Tripura, and four districts of Bihar (Saharsa, Purnea, Santhalpargana and Hazaribagh), the following growth rates for the decade 1951-1961 were recorded.
STATE G.R. G.R. G.R.
General Muslims Hindus
Assam 34.5 38.6 34.0
West Bengal 32.8 36.5 32.6
Tripura 78.7 68.0 80.6
Bihar (4) Districts 22.1 67.3 14.7
Bihar rest 19.2 19.1 20.1
Bihar total 19.8 32.3 19.0
At word of these reports, the Indian Government became so alarmed that it ordered an investigation, and the Census Actuary of India researched the topic and concluded that the growth rate of Muslims was so abnormally high that it could not be the natural one. The natural growth rate was accepted as 30 per cent, and the accruing excess population was attributed to the illegal migration of Muslims from East Pakistan. This excess was 1,033,450, and the study also concluded that these illegal immigrants were in the following strengths:
1. Assam 220,680
2. West Bengal 459,914
3. Tripura 55,403
4. Bihar (4 Districts) 297,853
(These figures are taken from the former Chief Minister of Assam, H. Saikia’s booklet, The Problem of Foreign Nationals in Assam).
The Census Actuary gave the following figures in (thousands)
Assam 224
West Bengal 450
Tripura 56
Bihar (4 dist) 406
Total 1,136
This study was published in the Census reports of India and concerned states and also in the Census Paper 1 of 1963 of religion. The Ministry of External Affairs, simultaneously brought forth a publication entitled Influx-Infiltration from East Pakistan, which, analysing the growth rate of Muslims in the above mentioned states, held that:
There is only one scientific explanation for this phenomenon. There was obviously a flow of Muslim population from East Pakistan to Tripura, Assam, and West Bengal in the Indo-Pakistan Census decade 1951-61.
At a glance, the growth rates of the Muslims look abnormal. (Assam 38.6; West Bengal 36.5; Tripura 68.0; and Bihar 32.3 per cent). But, we have to look deeper to know the facts; the inflow of Muslims from East Pakistan is simply fiction.
First, such figures do not show abnormal growth. In the same Census (1961), and the same state of Assam, the tribal districts of the United Mikir and North Cachar Hills registered an increase of 69.08 per cent. This district was out of bounds for any outsider, and no one says that there was immigration. The growth rate is a natural one. The Census authorities, baffled with this contradiction, circulated the explanation that:
This district is the most inaccessible and unhealthy one in previous decades, and the local authorities reported to us that the apparent increase is mainly due to the fact that a large number of villages in this district had never been enumerated BOFORE 1961. Many hitherto inaccessible areas in this district have now become accessible thanks to the developmental activities during 1951-61.
But the same logic could be applied to the Muslims of Assam who were mostly concentrated in the riverine Char areas.
In the next decade, Nagaland registered an increase of 39.88 per cent. Nagaland is an area under the Inner Line Regulations where none from outside can enter without an Inner Line Permit. Therefore, the rise due to immigration has to be ruled out, and the 39.88 per cent increase has to be taken as natural growth rate.
Second, in all fairness, it is to be conceded that the growth rate figures are abnormal, but this is not due to any influx of illegal Muslim immigration. Deficiencies of the previous Census (1951) resulted in the inflation of these figures.
We are, however, only concerned with the state of Assam. In 1951, Muslims registered a growth rate of 17.6 per cent for the decade 1941-1951 which was the lowest in the recorded demographic history of Assam. It is obvious that the 1951 Census figure partially, if not completely, underestimated the actual Muslim population in Assam then. This happened due to non-enumeration in many riverine areas of Muslim concentration, to the temporary evacuation of Muslims from Assam due to communal riots, and to their failing to return before the close of enumeration in early 1951. If these factors are taken into consideration, the growth rate of Muslims in the decade 1951-61 appears normal and natural.
DEPORTATION OF MUSLIMS
SECOND PHASE – The P.I.P
After the study of the Census Actuary and the myth of the Pakistani influx, an era of witch-hunting of Muslims began, and the officials vigorously pursued a policy of deportation. In two years, 1961 and 1962, 17,980 Muslims were deported from Assam.
Years Number of Persons Number of Persons
Detected as infiltrators Deported
1961 5,146 4,603
1962 14,616 13,377
(Source: Ministry of Home Affairs. Dec. 1983)
In November 1962, China attacked India, and its main thrust was in the north of Assam. The Chinese pursued the retreating Indian army, and Assam was to be invaded; then, for reasons best known to them, the Chinese rulers declared a unilateral ceasefire. The inhabitants of Northern Assam, particularly of Darrang, were so panic-stricken at the prospect of the march of the Chinese army that they fled from their homes to lower Assam. Tezpur was evacuated in a panic, even by government officers. The unilateral ceasefire saved Assam from ignominy. In those days, only the Muslim inhabitants remained steadfast. The then Chief Minister, B.P. Chaliha, paid a tribute to their courage.
But, after the Chinese had pulled back, mischievous stories were circulated that the Muslims were preparing to welcome the Chinese armies by hoisting Pakistani flags. B.N. Mullick, Director of the Intelligence Bureau, who was obsessed with the idea that the sympathies of the Indian Muslims rested with Pakistan, pursued the Indian Government to draw up a scheme for “the Prevention of Infiltration from the Pakistanis” (P.I.P). He enthusiastically wanted to have more than 220,000 Muslims driven out of Assam to East Pakistan. The Indian Government, without scrutinising the Census Actuary’s study and without verifying the alleged reports about the Muslims of Assam preparing to welcome the Chinese, readily accepted the proposal. Deportation of the Muslims was then pursued with full vigour.
Under the P.I.P., police officers in charge of police stations were empowered to issue “quit India” notices, and poor, illiterate, Muslim peasants were taken in truckloads to the border and pushed towards East Pakistan.
The blame for such atrocious behaviour does not primarily lie only with the police; it was the Government of India which issued instructions.
DEPORTATION OF MUSLIMS
THIRD PHASE – BANGLADESHIS
During the turmoil in Bangladesh many millions of persons took refuge in India, particularly in Assam, West Bengal, Meghalaya, Tripura, and Bihar. The Government of Indian India held nothing back to provide shelter and food and take good care of the refugees, mostly Hindus.
After the creation of Bangladesh, however, these refugees started returning to their country. By February 8, 1972, about seven million refugees went back to their country. The joint statement issued after the talks between the Prime Ministers of India and Bangladesh on February 8, 1972 bears testimony to it.
By the middle of 1972 almost all of the refugees who had come to India due to the turmoil in East Pakistan returned to their country, which was now the new nation of Bangladesh.
The Government of India also declared that “practically all of the refugees returned to their homeland.”
The majority of the refugees who came to India during the unsettled conditions in East Pakistan (Bangladesh) were Hindus. In Assam there were allegations that many refugees stole away from the camp and resided in Bengali-speaking areas and villages. On these reports, the Government of Assam again took up its deportation drive, and both Hindus and Muslims were deported out of Assam in large numbers. From 1972 to 1978, 100,818 persons of both communities, Hindu and Muslim, were deported as aliens from Assam.
BLOOD BATH IN 80s
In 1978, the ruling party of Assam resorted to deportations to divert public attention from the economic issues as these issues were causing political unrest in the state. Violence against Bangla-speaking population started from 1979 which culminated into mass massacre of Bangla-speaking Muslims in Nellie and neighbouring area of Nowgang district in 1983. The murderous mob did not spare women, children and even infants. Ahoms and particularly Lalungs were the perpetrators of those heinous crimes and it is to be noted that during this period (from 1979 to 1984), the Bodos did not attach a single Muslim; their relations with Muslims were cordial. Some incidents did take place in Kokrajhar area but the Bodos were not involved in them. It is pertinent to point out here that not a single culprit was prosecuted and punished for these carnages.
The disturbed situation gradually returned to normalcy after the enactment of the Illegal Migrant (Determination by Tribunal) Act. It was agreed upon that all those Bangla-speaking persons who were in Assam during 1971 census would not be regarded as migrants; they are all Indians. Thus 1971 census report becomes an important document for determining illegal migrants in Assam. Those who came to Assam after 1971 are illegal migrants. Now let us see the census of 1971 and know the proportion of Muslims and Bangla-speaking persons in Assam.
POPULATION
The 1971 census gives its population as 14.6 million. The overwhelming majority of the population is comprised of plainsmen, who are mostly Hindus (10.60 million). The Hindus form 72.5 per cent, and the Muslims who form a very substantial minority (3.59 million) are 24.5 per cent of the population. At the time of the census, Mizoram, which is now a separate political administrative unit as a Union Territory, was a district of Assam. The percentages of the Hindu and the Muslim population quoted are of the present-day Assam, excluding Mizoram.
The population of Assam in its present boundaries as recorded in three censuses after the independence is given below:
1951 1961 1971
Total 8,028,856 10,837,329 14,625,156
Hindu 5,781,974 7,730,698 10,604,607
Muslim 1,981,859 2,742,287 3,592,111
The figures of the Muslim population in the 1951 census are not reliable.
The number of persons and their proportion to the total population according to the mother tongue recorded during the post-independence census listed below:
1951 1961 1971
Assamese 4,971,229 6,784,271 8,904,917
Percentage 56.29 57.14 60.89
Bengali 1,717,381 2,061,533 2,882,039
Percentage 19.45 17.38 19.71
The present Chief Minister of Assam, Mr. Tarun Gogoi, in a statement, has clarified that there is no indication of any influx from Bangladesh for about last two decades. The rates of growth of population in these decades have been lower than all India growth rates. The census of 2001 recorded national growth rates as 21.5 per cent whereas in Assam it was 18.9 and the census of 2010 records these growth rates as 17.6 and 16.9. These figures rule out the possibility of any influx of migrants from Bangladesh or from any other states.
BODO LAND MOVEMENT
The Bodos or Boros encouraged by the pusillanimous policy of creating new states for those north-eastern tribes who took up arms against India, raised demand for creating Bodoland State for them in 1987. Bodos formed an organised militant group named, Bodo Liberation Tiger, even after agreement on the First Bodo Accord between All Bodo Students Union (ABSU), Bodo People Action Committee (BPAC) and Governments of India and Assam in 1990. The Bodo Liberation Tiger which got its ranks armed with lethal fire arms including AK 47 pursued the policy of driving away other people from the four districts of Kokrajhar, Chirang, Baksa and Udalgiri by attacking them. The ranks of BLT attacked Raj Bangshis, who formed about 15% of the population of these districts, in late 1989 and early 1990. Then they, in 1993, attacked Muslims in Kokrajhar and Bangaigan. Muslims, who are Bangla-speaking, form the largest group in this area being about 35%. The violence continued in 1994 killing more than one hundred and affecting 4000 families. In 1993 second Bodo Accord was signed on the principle of autonomy to Bodo populated area. In spite of this Accord, the Bodo Liberation Tiger pursued the policy of ethnic cleansing. Adivasis, who formed 17 per cent of the total population, were attacked. In the meanwhile, Santhals organised Santhal Bisra Commando Force to defend them against attacks of BLT ranks and there was bloody clashes between them in 1996 and 1998.
The Bodo groups ABSU, BPAC and BLT built up pressure on Government to form Bodoland. In 2003, Bodo Territorial Autonomous Districts (BTAD) comprising of the above mentioned four districts was conceded, entrusting the administration to Bodo Territorial Council. The government of India and Assam committed great injustice to non-Bodos who are more than 70% in these four districts by allotting 80% seats of the Bodo Territorial Council to Bodos who are estimated to be 27% or at the most 29% in these districts. Another grave mistake was that, before the formation of BTAD, Bodo armed groups were not required to lay down their arms. Thirdly, when the BTC asked for more powers to be transferred to the Council, of particularly having police and other law-enforcing agencies under its direct control, the Assam Government said that as Bodos are not more than 50 per cent in the areas these powers cannot be entrusted to the Council.
ATTACK ON NON-BODOS
The Bodo groups, determined to get these powers, took up a violent campaign of ethnic cleansing. In 2008 Santhats were attacked again and uptil now the Santhas who were displaced and were sheltered in relief camps have not been rehabilitated in their native villages and now Bangla-speaking Muslims and Hindus both are being targeted. A number of Bangla-speaking Hindus, Raj Bangshies, Koches and others have fled to West Bengal and Mamta Banerjee government was generous enough to shelter and feed them. The Bangla-speaking Muslims do not expect such a response to them anywhere be it West Bengal or Bangladesh (The Bangladesh Government has recently sealed its border with Burma and declared that the Rohingya Muslims of Myanmar who are subjected to mass murder, devastation of their habitats and other brutal indignities, are unwelcome in Bangladesh.) These Muslims are languishing in wretched and unhealthy conditions in relief camps.
(to be concluded)