Narendra Modi has won the toss, but can he win the game which is yet to be played by the team led by him and Advani, on a pitch which is likely to witness uneven bounce. Is Modi prepared to play the spin, in-swing and out-swing from dissident and those loyal to Advani? Or will they play the game in the spirit of the game and let the organisation and institution remain above individuals?
Since 1980, BJP has been controlled by Advani and Vajpayee and therefore stiff resistance against any kind of transition was inevitable. On the final day (9 June) of the Goa conclave, the BJP in the absence of LK Advani dared to anoint Narendra Modi as chairman of the poll panel possibly at the behest of RSS, without calculating the risk of damage that can be inflicted by the insiders. Will a new Yedyurappa emerge from here or it is too much a reading in-between the lines. BJP is virtually divided into two camps after personality clash at the top. Individuals are hell bent to be above institution. Advani is in no mood to let others reap what he has sown for the BJP over the years. Apart from sharp division within the party against his elevation, Modi may be worried over how the investigation into some of encounters in Gujarat is going to unfold in the coming days.
Now the big question: Will the bigger role for Modi mark the end of Atal-Advani era or there is possibility that it is part of the gameplan and at some later stage Advani or someone else could be still in the race to become a Vajpayee of Modi. Many believe that this question can only be answered by the RSS, because RSS wants to use Modi only as a polarising figure to reach a certain level and thereafter depending on the circumstances or the outcome of the election results someone else would take up the lead to keep all options open before allies.
Under the prevailing circumstances, the bigger role for Modi was certain, but at the same time it was also decided that officially he was not to be projected as a prime ministerial candidate. His elevation has been made only to satisfy party cadre that he is the undeclared prime ministerial candidate so that allies remain intact, because Congress could become stronger and in a comfortable position if by any means JD-U comes to its fold.
Absence of leaders like LK Advani, Uma Bharati, Jaswant Singh, YashwantSinha from Goa conclave, which began on 7 June, to chalk out strategy for the coming LokSabha polls is a clear indication that these leaders were opposed to any bigger role for Modi. Even if Modi had been elevated to some key position in the BJP by consensus, the tug of war within the BJP might not halt and most likely would come up after some intervals eventually leading to further clash of the titans in the BJP. A decade ago it was Advani who had supported Modi in Goa when then Prime Minister AtalBehari Vajpayee was against Modi. Why is he now openly against Narendra Modi? This is how politics is played out when there are personal motives and it varies from time to time and from one ambition to another. The priority before Advani was then different as compared to what he wants to achieve now by opposing Modi.
Advani in due course of time is likely to seize every opportunity to undermine the political stature that Modi has attained within the BJP, by regrouping his loyalists and dissidents of Modi to his side to keep his self above others, in order to make himself an acceptable entity not only in the BJP but among allies as well. Many political analysts believe that Modi can be acceptable to a large section in the BJP, but he is certainly not acceptable across the country and even to some allies of the BJP.
In due process, Gujarat riots and encounters will keep on haunting Modi from time to time rather continuously. As per media reports, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi has dared the government to arrest him in the IshratJahan fake encounter case. Was it at all necessary to say so or by saying so what he has intended to say? In his reply, P Chidambaram has said some BJP leaders and Gujarat Chief Minister are interfering with the CBI investigation, which is being done under directions of the Supreme Court. The CBI has questioned a former police officer of Gujarat, currently a serving officer of IB, in the IshratJahan case. That’s the CBI’s decision and this is court-monitored and therefore it is wrong to accuse the Government of India or Congress Party.
A local court has remanded suspended IPS officer D G Vanzara in CBI custody in the IshratJahan encounter killing case. Vanzara was in Mumbai jail as an accused in the SohrabuddinShaikh encounter case of 2005. He is also an accused in the TulsiPrajapati encounter. The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) has questioned some Intelligence Bureau (IB) officials at its headquarters to find out the truth about the inputs that led to the IshratJahan encounter in 2004. The CBI is investigating whether a senior IB officer connived with Gujarat police officers. The Gujarat High Court following Ishrat’s mother’s petition had constituted a Special Investigation Team (SIT) which after its investigation concluded that the encounter was fake. Union Agriculture Minister SharadPawar said in Thane last week that Chief Minister Narendra Modi and Gujarat police had killed an innocent college-going girl by branding her as a terrorist.
Meanwhile, a special CBI court has now issued notice to the investigating agency over a petition filed by Sadiq’s brother Shabbir demanding probe into the alleged role of Chief Minister Narendra Modi and former minister Amit Shah in the 2003 Sadiq Jamal fake encounter case. Shabbir in his petition has said that the CBI had not investigated properly and many angles of the encounter had not been looked into and therefore requires thorough probe to find out the truth. It is yet to be seen as to where the on-going probes into fake encounter cases and the personality clash in the BJP will lead to.
Of late, it appears that some of the Advani loyalists have fallen in line endorsing Modi’s elevation but how long will the dust blown out of Goa will remain settled is a wild guess. Will Advani too fall in the line or will he find some ways to rise once again and be counted?