The hypothesis says that in its war against Iran, the US is seeking to entangle the Gulf states alongside it, and then abandon them. The question is: could President Donald Trump walk away from the war on Iran, leave the region, and abandon the Gulf states to face Tehran on their own?
The short answer: yes.
The longer answer: the possibility exists, but Trump is not under military or public pressure that would force him to consider withdrawal. Even if he did withdraw, it does not necessarily mean the fighting would shift to the Gulf states, which have refrained from engaging in it.
However, if the conflict drags on and the president feels he has achieved part of his objectives, he may choose to stop and leave. Likewise, if it becomes clear that achieving those goals comes at a high cost to his administration, it would not be surprising for him to pack up and withdraw.
Trump appears strong and composed despite Iran’s resilience and its continued targeting of Gulf states with missiles and drones. This is also despite the oil shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, blocking the passage of around twenty million barrels per day.
Trump is aware of these losses. When asked, he said: “Toppling Iran’s regime is more important than the price of oil,” effectively gambling with his popularity and his party’s chances as the American economy is affected by soaring prices. So far, Trump appears ready to continue the war until victory, with his forces carrying out daily strikes on vital regime targets.
Historically, the US has withdrawn when the human or material cost becomes higher than the expected gains from war. It withdrew from conflicts such as Vietnam, Lebanon, and Afghanistan. In others, it completed its missions and prevailed such as the liberation of Kuwait and the defeat of Serbian forces in the Bosnia war. Earlier, it won World War II and endured through the Cold War until the collapse of the Soviet Union. And although it withdrew from Afghanistan and handed Kabul to the Taliban, its forces still protect Seoul and have remained stationed for 72 years facing North Korea. Every crisis has its own considerations.
Politics is about calculating interests – profits and losses. Trump’s war on Iran is more significant than George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime. This war could settle a long-standing conflict between the two countries, making the likelihood of Trump withdrawing less probable, as he seeks a historic victory.
Not all war objectives may be achieved, and the conflict could drag on for many months in the worst-case scenario. In that case, US fleets may leave the region while the regime continues to rule in Tehran.
Iran considers itself in a war of survival, and its strategy is almost suicidal. Its only bet is to prolong the conflict, hoping for external support, while understanding that surrender at this stage could lead to the regime’s internal collapse.
What about the position of the Gulf states under a withdrawal scenario?
Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf states have refrained from engaging in the war because they are not a party to the conflict from the outset. They did not participate in any of the recent negotiation rounds and were not consulted in the previous comprehensive nuclear agreement. In addition, Riyadh had already signed the Beijing agreement, which reduced tensions between the two countries – although Tehran violated it through its recent attacks inside Saudi territory.
The Gulf states are not eager to enter wars unless absolutely necessary, even under pressure such as calls from Senator Lindsey Graham urging them to join the fight.
[by Abdulrahman Al-Rashed in Asharq Al-Awsat]