Syria’s prolonged civil war saw a significant shift in its blood-soaked landscape. Rebel forces havelaunched their largest offensive in years, taking key cities like Aleppo and Hama with lightning speed, and staring at the gates of the historical and strategic city of Homs. This development has reignited global attention on a conflict often relegated to the background. At the centre of this new offensive is the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), often accused of having links with Al Qaeda and professing extremist views and a radical ideology. Let’s try to understand the implications of this offensive, and look at the players, their history, and possible outcomes at this critical juncture of what could possibly alter the Middle East completely.
Who Are the Rebels in Syria?
Ground reports suggest that the latest rebel campaign has dramatically reshaped the battlefield. In less than two weeks, rebels have taken control of Aleppo – Syria’s second-largest city and Hama and are advancing toward Homs. The Assad regime’s military and various militia backed by various foreign players lack adequate resources and have retreated in the face of the coordinated offensive. HTS spearheaded the assault, surprising many with its efficiency and organisation.
Currently, the international media has profiled “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” (HTS), meaning the “Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant,” as a militant Islamist group primarily active in northwest Syria. Formed in 2017, HTS originated from the merger of several factions, most prominently Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, which was formerly al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, known as Jabhat al-Nusra.
Under the leadership of Abu Mohammad al-Julani, HTS has evolved from an al-Qaeda-linked entity to a locally focused organisation aiming for dominance in Syria. It controls significant parts of Idlib province, administering these areas through the “Salvation Government,” a civilian body providing essential services like healthcare and education.
Ideologically, HTS adheres to Salafi-jihadism, advocating for an Islamic state governed by Sharia law. However, in recent years, the group has sought to rebrand itself as a more moderate Islamist entity distancing from global jihadist networks like al-Qaeda and emphasising local governance and stability. Despite this, HTS continues to be designated a terrorist organisation by countries such as the U.S., Türkiye, and Russia.
How Did the Rebel Offensive Unfold?
The current offensive follows a period of relative calm. Since 2020, a fragile ceasefire brokered by Russia and Türkiye kept hostilities in check. However, the war’s dynamics shifted due to external factors. Russia’s focus on the Ukraine conflict and Hezbollah’s setbacks in Lebanon had weakened Assad’s external support. Israeli strikes on Iranian-linked militias have further destabilised Assad’s support network. This vacuum of power allowed HTS and allied groups to regroup and launch their assault. The rapid capture of Aleppo and Hama shows the Syrian military’s vulnerability without its traditional backers.
The Role of External Players
The Syrian civil war has long been a battleground for competing foreign power. Russia, a staunch ally of the Assad regime, has provided decisive airpower, enabling government forces to regain substantial territory. Iran, through its sponsorship of militias like Hezbollah, has supplied ground support vital to Assad’s survival. Conversely, Türkiye has backed various rebel factions, maintaining influence over the north-western province of Idlib and hosting ceasefire negotiations with Russia.
The United States, while reducing its direct involvement in recent years, remains engaged through its backing of Kurdish forces in the northeast. Meanwhile, Israel has conducted repeated strikes to curb Iranian influence in Syria, targeting supply lines and military installations. These external players have turned Syria into a geopolitical chessboard, prolonging the conflict and complicating prospects for peace.
Changing dynamics of External Influence in Syria
Russia’s engagement in Syria has witnessed diminishing intensity, primarily due to its preoccupation with the Ukraine conflict and the resulting strain on its military resources. However, strategic stakes like the Tartus naval base ensure that Moscow remains a key player in the region. Iran, once unwavering in its support, shows signs of a shifting stance, influenced by its economic struggles and growing domestic dissent.
Hezbollah, a critical ally on the ground, has seen its position weakened after the elimination of its top leadership at the hands of Israel and the wavering support from Iran. These factors collectively point to the possibility of reduced external support for Assad. Should this scenario unfold, Assad’s survival could become difficult and his regime could fall sooner rather than later.
Geopolitical Ramifications
Syria’s shifting alliances complicate the conflict. Türkiye, despite its influence over Idlib, faces domestic pressure to resolve the refugee crisis. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s overtures to Assad have been rebuffed, with the Syrian president demanding a full Turkish withdrawal as a precondition for talks. Meanwhile, Arab states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have softened their stance toward Assad, exploring avenues for limited engagement. However, the recent rebel offensive threatens these diplomatic overtures, as regional powers scramble to reassess their strategies. For Israel, Syria’s instability presents a dual threat: the possibility of a stronger Iranian presence or the rise of Islamist factions along its borders.
The Human Cost of Renewed Violence
The humanitarian toll of the Syrian conflict has been staggering, and the recent escalation has exacerbated the suffering. Nearly 300,000 people have been displaced since the offensive began, and hundreds have been killed. Civilians in rebel-held areas endure relentless airstrikes, with reports of hospitals and residential buildings being targeted.
Basic commodities have become prohibitively expensive, pushing a population already living in poverty into deeper despair. Fears of chemical attacks, voiced by civil defence organisations like the White Helmets, loom over those caught in the crossfire. For many Syrians, this resurgence of violence brings memories of past atrocities, dashing hopes for a stable future.
Syria’s Uncertain Future and a Glimmer of Hope
As HTS gains ground, its leadership faces the challenge of winning over a diverse and war-weary population. Some are comparing the HTS resurgence to the Taliban’s rise in Afghanistan. While the group’s leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani, speaks of a “Syria for all Syrians,” many in the West remain unconvinced. Despite the grave and uncertain situation, the rebel advance has reignited a flicker of hope for some Syrians. Families separated by war dream of reunification. Displaced individuals envision a return to their hometowns.
For Syria to find peace, a comprehensive political solution that includes all stakeholders is essential. As the conflict enters its 14th year, Syria stands at a crossroads. Will this latest chapter pave the way for lasting peace or plunge the nation into deeper turmoil? The answer lies not just on the battlefield but in the willingness of international and regional powers to prioritise humanity over geopolitics.