The election of Syed Ibrahim Raisi as the new President of Iran with a clear margin has nothing surprising in it. He appeared to be a winner much before the presidential poll was held as all the heavy-weight challengers to him got disqualified. The incumbent President, Hassan Rouhani, who had already completed two consecutive terms (eight years in office), was out of the race because the Iranian constitution does not allow anyone to try for more than two terms as President.
The Council of Guardians, using its power under the constitution, rejected the candidature of Iranian Parliament’s former Speaker Ali Larijani and ex-President (for two terms) Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This made Raisi’s election almost a foregone conclusion, but the voter turnout was only 48.8 per cent, the lowest since 1979, when Iran began its democratic march after the end of the monarchy as a result of the Ayatullah Khomeini-led revolution in that country. The low turnout can be interpreted as voters accepting him as their new leader even before casting their vote because he had no major candidate left to put up a serious challenge to Raisi.
Going by his background, one can believe that Iran will no longer conduct its affairs the way it did during the eight-year-presidency of Hassan Rouhani. Raisi, scheduled to take over as the new President in August, is expected to lead his country strictly in accordance with the wishes of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatullah Ali Khamenei. He is known to have been giving much regard to the wishes of Iran’s top leader, who wants his country to be administered in accordance with the constitution without seeking any kind of reforms.
The first test of his leadership will be when it comes to dealing with the world on Iran’s nuclear programme. The nuclear deal Iran had signed with the five Security Council members (the US, the UK, Russia, France and China) plus Germany, called the P5 plus one, in 2015 after tough negotiations is back to the discussion table after new US President Joe Biden cancelled the decision of his predecessor, Donald
Trump, to withdraw the US from it in 2017. President Biden’s decision has led to the withdrawal of most of the US sanctions on Iran imposed during the Trump presidency. But the world has to see where Iran exactly stands so far as the conditions imposed on its nuclear programme are concerned.
The world has been worried because the Iranian nuclear programme has always been suspected of being aimed at acquiring weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), though Teheran claims that it is a peaceful project, meant only for nuclear energy generation. The international community had to take it more seriously following the concerns raised by two West Asian powers – Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Saudis and the Israelis argue that Iran’s efforts to acquire WMDs, even if disguisedly, will alter the power balance in the volatile region. While Israel, suspected to be possessing the ultimate weapon, may resort to all kinds of tactics to destroy Iran’s nuclear energy facilities, Saudi Arabia may do all it can to acquire nuclear power to blunt the Iranian challenge if the world powers fail to tightly bind Teheran to the deal it has signed.
Raisi is on record to have criticised the nuclear deal but he has indicated his willingness to abide by it if the crippling sanctions on Iran are withdrawn. Reviving the ailing Iranian economy is bound to be on top of Raisi’s agenda, but how far he is ready to go with regard to his country’s nuclear ambitions remains to be seen.
That he is very close to Ayatullah Khamenei and other senior religious leaders of his country may help him take a clear decision on the nuclear and other such issues. The Iranian religious leadership had indicated in the past that the country’s economic interests were more important than its security interests and that no such step should be taken as could jeopardise the people’s economic interests.
Going by the background of Raisi, one can conclude that he may try to implement Iran’s scheme of things in West Asia more vigorously than his predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, who did not bother much about the
sentiments of his country’s religious leadership. The Saudi Arabia-led camp, therefore, may have to be more tactful in handling the Iran factor in the Middle-East.
During the Raisi presidency, Iran’s relations with India may scale new heights vis-a-vis China as now the religious leadership may find it easier to get its viewpoint taken care of by the executive head of Iran. Teheran has been welcoming Russian and Chinese investments in the Persian Gulf country with open arms to deter the US and Israel from taking any adventurous action against Iran, but the situation may change now. Iran under Raisi may express its reservations so far as any Chinese investment is concerned, unless Teheran’s concerns are fully honoured, owing to the fact that China has been following a quiet policy of economic entrapment by using its financial might.
This is the time for India to be more forthcoming for increased investment in Iran, including Chabahar port and projects like over-ground and undersea gas pipelines from the Persian Gulf country. India has been taking little interest in the 1036-km-long Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project since 2007 owing to the price and security factors, but under the changed circumstances, New Delhi needs to focus on the undersea gas pipeline project idea floated some time ago. The 1300-km undersea pipeline project can help India in getting cheaper gas from Iran besides gas supplies from Turkmenistan.
However, India cannot ignore the US and Saudi factors while taking steps to strengthen its relations with Iran through investments in the energy sector. New Delhi may have to endeavour to find balancing factors for protecting its interests in Iran as well as in the Middle-East.
Iran with Raisi as its President will always be seen by keeping in view his background since his younger days when he was appointed the prosecutor-general of Karaj, a Teheran suburb, at the age of 20 soon after the 1979 Iranian revolution. He held various judicial positions before becoming a full-fledged judge and then the head of the judiciary in 2019.
Human rights organisation Amnesty International accused him of being involved in extrajudicial executions in 1988. A 2018 Amnesty International report again alleged that he had a hand in the killing of a large number of opponents of the government, which led to the imposition of sanctions on him by the US and the European Union.
However, now that he has risen to become the President of Iran, Raisi may play his cards more responsibly so that his country comes out of the economic morass it finds itself in. How he manages his country’s affairs at this stage is more important than what he did in the past.
[The writer is a New Delhi-based senior journalist and political columnist.]